Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4263
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4263 · MDW → PHL
departs 6:45 PM CT · arrives 9:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at PHL that day
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.