Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4269
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 4269 · MCI → BNA
departs 5:20 PM CT · arrives 6:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 36%
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.