Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4384
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4384 · DEN → JAX
departs 10:15 AM MT · arrives 3:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 53%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 26%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±5 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.45 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.