Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4384
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4384 · DEN → JAX
departs 11:00 AM MT · arrives 4:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±4 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at JAX that day
↑
11am departures from DEN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↓
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at DEN that day
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.