Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4386
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 4386 · DEN → RSW
departs 11:05 AM MT · arrives 4:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 35%
Thu 10/8 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at RSW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RSW?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day
↑
11am departures from DEN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DEN that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RSW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.