Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4442
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4442 · RDU → TPA
departs 1:05 PM ET · arrives 2:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Other factors
↑
TPA is prone to delays
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.04 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.