Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4442
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 4442 · RDU → TPA
departs 1:20 PM ET · arrives 3:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Sat 10/3 27%
Mon 10/5
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at RDU that day
↑
TPA is prone to delays
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.31 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.