Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4471
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4471 · AMA → DAL
departs 5:30 PM CT · arrives 6:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 53%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave AMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at AMA that day
Weather at each end
AMA (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.