WN 4505 · SAN → HOU

took off 2:04 PM PT · landed 6:43 PM CT (scheduled 11:41 AM PT → 4:51 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to HOU?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at HOU that day

↑ Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late

↑ 11am departures from SAN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

HOU (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4505 · SAN → HOU

Odds over time

How late did it get to HOU?