Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4521
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 4521 · ABQ → SAN
departs 6:30 PM MT · arrives 7:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 48%
Mon 10/5 37%
Fri 10/9 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±8 pts
+17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ABQ
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
ABQ (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.