Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4521
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4521 · ABQ → SAN
departs 8:10 PM MT · arrives 9:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Sat 10/3 30%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ABQ
Weather at each end
ABQ (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.