Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 454
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 454 · BNA → AUS
departs 9:45 PM CT · arrives 11:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 36%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±2 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
9pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.12 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.