Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 454
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 454 · BNA → AUS
departs 10:35 PM CT · arrives 12:50 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 56%
Sat 10/3 39%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.13 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.