Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4618
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 4618 · AUS → TPA
departs 5:55 PM CT · arrives 9:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 40%
Mon 10/5 34%
Fri 10/9 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
AUS is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.04 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.