Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4618
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4618 · AUS → TPA
departs 5:55 PM CT · arrives 9:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Sat 10/3 46%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 24%
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.