Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4618
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4618 · AUS → TPA
departs 4:25 PM CT · arrives 7:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 37%
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
46%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
8%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
4pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
AUS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.99 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.