Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4630
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 4630 · BNA → PNS
departs 5:45 PM CT · arrives 7:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at PNS more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PNS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at PNS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PNS?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at PNS that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
PNS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
PNS (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.93 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.