Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4635
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
WN 4635 · DEN → TUL
departs 3:35 PM MT · arrives 6:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 15%
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↓
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DEN that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TUL (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.