Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4682
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4682 · VPS → DAL
departs 5:35 PM CT · arrives 7:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave VPS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 933 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at VPS that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
VPS usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
VPS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 933 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.94 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.