Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4692
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 4692 · BWI → MSY
departs 8:20 AM ET · arrives 10:05 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MSY that day
↑
BWI is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
8am departures from BWI are usually not late
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.09 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 2.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.