Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4695
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4695 · CLT → BWI
departs 8:15 AM ET · arrives 9:40 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
CLT is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at CLT that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
CLT (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.83 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip 0.13 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.