Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4709
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4709 · MCO → RSW
departs 8:50 PM ET · arrives 10:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 41%
Fri 10/9 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
5.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at RSW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RSW?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 36 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
8pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Other factors
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 36 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
RSW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.