Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4709
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 4709 · MCO → RSW
departs 8:50 PM ET · arrives 10:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 54%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
−13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at RSW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RSW?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
8pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.27 in
RSW (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.