Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4709
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4709 · MCO → RSW
departs 8:55 PM ET · arrives 10:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 38%
Fri 10/9 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±5 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.0d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at RSW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RSW?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
8pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
RSW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
RSW (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.