Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4758 LANDED 10:02 AM CT, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 4758 · BNA → MSP

took off 8:21 AM CT · landed 10:02 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at MSP that day

↑ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into MSP at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4758 · BNA → MSP

Odds over time