Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4794
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4794 · HOU → HRL
departs 9:35 PM CT · arrives 10:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 67%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 56%
Mon 10/5 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at HRL more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±2 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HRL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at HRL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to HRL?
On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at HRL that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
HRL (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.55 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.