Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4794
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4794 · HOU → HRL
departs 10:50 PM CT · arrives 11:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 30%
Fri 10/9 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at HRL more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±4 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HRL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at HRL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to HRL?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.9 in of rain forecast at HRL that day
↑
10pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.13 in
HRL (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 1.86 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.