Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4798
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4798 · MCO → SDF
departs 9:05 PM ET · arrives 11:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 47%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.