Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4798
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 4798 · MCO → SDF
departs 8:40 PM ET · arrives 10:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Sun 10/4 50%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
53%
chance · ±10 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
53%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
28%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.47 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.