Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4821
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4821 · BWI → PVD
departs 7:00 AM ET · arrives 8:25 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 4%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 4%
Mon 10/5 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
4%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
4%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.4d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
BWI is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PVD
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into PVD at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
PVD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.