Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4821
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 4821 · BWI → PVD
departs 7:10 AM ET · arrives 8:30 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 4%
Sat 10/3 4%
Sun 10/4 4%
Mon 10/5
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at PVD that day
↓
Arrivals into PVD at that hour are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.9 mi Precip none
PVD (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.