Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4857
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 4857 · HOU → LAX
departs 6:20 PM CT · arrives 7:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.