Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4857
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 4857 · HOU → LAX
departs 5:30 PM CT · arrives 6:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sun 10/4
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at HOU that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.19 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.