Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4881
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 4881 · AUS → ABQ
departs 1:45 PM CT · arrives 2:35 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +34 pts in 24h
+34 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at ABQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to ABQ?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ABQ
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
ABQ (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.