Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 579
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 579 · BNA → MEM
departs 8:00 AM CT · arrives 9:05 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Fri 10/2 31%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at MEM that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into MEM at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.18 in
MEM (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.