Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 579
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 579 · BNA → MEM
departs 7:55 AM CT · arrives 9:00 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 10%
Thu 10/8 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.2 in of rain forecast at MEM that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into MEM at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.41 in
MEM (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.