Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 581 LANDED 8:03 PM PT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

WN 581 · LAS → OAK

took off 7:02 PM PT · landed 8:03 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OAK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 581 · LAS → OAK

Odds over time