Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 806
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 806 · BUR → OAK
departs 5:10 PM PT · arrives 6:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↑
BUR is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.