Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 806
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 806 · BUR → OAK
departs 5:45 PM PT · arrives 7:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
Weather at each end
BUR (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.