Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3450
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 3450 · ORD → CLT
departs 10:26 AM CT · arrives 1:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 11%
Thu 10/8 12%
Fri 10/9 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at CLT that day
↑
10am departures from ORD are often late
↑
CLT is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CLT (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.83 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.