YX 3494 · PWM → IAD

took off 10:11 AM ET · landed 11:43 AM ET (scheduled 9:43 AM ET → 11:54 AM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to IAD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ PWM is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PWM

↓ 9am departures from PWM are usually not late

Weather at each end

PWM (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3494 · PWM → IAD

Odds over time

How late did it get to IAD?