Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 3538 · IAD → SDF
departs 5:25 PM ET · arrives 7:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Fri 10/2 19%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SDF at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.