Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
YX 3538 · IAD → SDF
departs 5:25 PM ET · arrives 7:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
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How late will it get to SDF?
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On time or early
81%
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15–30 min late
3%
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30 min–1 hour late
7%
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1–2 hours late
6%
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Over 2 hours late
2%
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Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.