Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3587
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
YX 3587 · EWR → ILM
departs 10:22 AM ET · arrives 12:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 11%
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at ILM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ILM?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at ILM that day
↑
10am departures from EWR are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,583 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ILM (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.49 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.