Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3587
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 3587 · EWR → ILM
departs 10:22 AM ET · arrives 12:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ILM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ILM?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at ILM that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
10am departures from EWR are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
ILM usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.02 in
ILM (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.86 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.