Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3618
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
YX 3618 · TVC → EWR
departs 1:46 PM ET · arrives 4:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave TVC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
TVC (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.