Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3618
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 3618 · TVC → EWR
departs 1:46 PM ET · arrives 4:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave TVC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at EWR that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TVC
Weather at each end
TVC (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.