Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3678
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 3678 · MSP → IAD
departs 5:05 PM CT · arrives 8:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 11%
Mon 10/5 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at MSP that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from MSP are often late
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.