Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3695
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 3695 · MSP → IAD
departs 12:17 PM CT · arrives 3:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.