Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4336
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 4336 · DCA → JFK
departs 7:58 PM ET · arrives 9:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↑
7pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.